Cryptocurrency, analysed.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and the major liquid alts — read through the same eight-module framework, tuned for crypto's halving cycles, ETF flows, and on-chain dynamics.
What changes for crypto.
The same eight modules, but with crypto-specific calibration. Macro context shifts. Quality and value get de-weighted. Sentiment and momentum get up-weighted. On-chain replaces some traditional inputs.
Halving matters
Bitcoin's supply schedule halves every four years. The April 2024 halving was the fourth. Each cycle's expansion has been smaller in percentage terms than the previous — exactly what you'd expect as the asset matures. Our model treats this as one input, not a thesis.
The new signal
Spot Bitcoin ETFs introduced a price-discovery channel that didn't exist in previous cycles. Weekly net flow is now one of the cleanest demand indicators we have — better than retail Google Trends or exchange inflow data.
Three buckets, not fifty
You don't need fifty indicators. We watch holder behaviour (LTH supply changes), realized price (paper-gain pressure), and exchange reserves (custody trends). Most other on-chain metrics are noise.
Liquidity is destiny
Crypto correlates with global liquidity more than any other asset class. Real yields, the dollar index, and Fed balance-sheet dynamics drive 60–70% of medium-term price action — well above any individual coin's fundamentals.